"Belaruskalij seeks to re-establish business relations in Lithuania. Lobbying activities monitored

In an effort to restore potash fertiliser exports through the port of Klaipėda, the Belarusian authorities are lobbying to influence Lithuania's and the European Union's (EU's) positions on sanctions, according to the National Security Threat Assessment published on Friday.

„Belarus is interested in restoring the export of potash fertilisers through the Klaipėda seaport, so representatives of the country's institutions are lobbying Lithuania and the EU to change their position on international sanctions on fertilisers, and „Belaruskalij“ is trying to maintain business relations in Lithuania, according to a publication prepared by the State Security Department (DSS) and the Second Operational Services Department (AOTD).

Intelligence stresses that the transit of Belarusian products through Lithuania would threaten national security. It also notes that Russia could take advantage of this.

„In the Intelligence Community's assessment, resuming the export of Belarusian fertilisers and other products through Lithuania would threaten national security interests. Transactions of companies operating in Lithuania with large Belarusian state-owned companies are likely to be used by the Lukashenko regime for political purposes. The Kremlin would also try to use Belarusian business transactions in Lithuania for its own purposes," the document says.

Business contacts in Lithuania remain of interest to Russia as the Kremlin hopes to use them to circumvent Western sanctions, the paper notes.

„Russian entities are still keen to maintain their business ties in Lithuania or create new ones, which could be used to increase their influence, to strike individual lucrative business deals, to circumvent international sanctions or for lobbying. They trust most those with whom they have established long-standing, loyal relationships," intelligence estimates.

Belarusian authorities will claim that severing business ties will cause serious damage to Lithuania

The document states that Belarus will seek to manipulate information in order to maintain business ties, claiming that Lithuania will suffer serious damage if business ties are severed.

„It is almost certain that Belarus will manipulate the information by claiming that Lithuania will suffer significant damage if it breaks off business ties,“ the intelligence agency said.

An example of such manipulation is the statement made by Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov in September 2024. The Minsk politician claimed that the weakening of ties between Lithuania and Belarus was having a negative impact on the Lithuanian economy.

„In the article, Ryzhenkov urged Lithuania to restore the economic relations it had previously enjoyed and to return to the supposedly constructive cooperation. It was argued that this would be to Lithuania's benefit – that reducing economic ties with Belarus is very damaging to the Lithuanian economy“, – the document said.

ELTA recalls that the State Security Department (DSS) and the Second Operational Services Department (AOTD) presented to the public the tenth National Security Threat Assessment.