Experts: mutations in bird flu could lead to pandemic

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ELTA 2025-02-24 08:31:32 Comments: 0

With bird flu on the rise, the situation is difficult in many European Union (EU) countries, with millions of birds destroyed this year alone, the State Food and Veterinary Service (SVVT) notes. Experts warn that avian influenza viruses mutate and can adapt to humans and cause a pandemic, so preparations must be made to strictly control their spread and prevent potential dangers, they said.

According to the HVO, the bird flu situation is challenging in many EU countries.

„According to today's figures, a total of 75 outbreaks of the virus have been detected, with more than 5 million birds destroyed this year alone. Poland, Italy, Belgium, Bulgaria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Lithuania are affected. It is also circulating in wild fauna, where more than 300 outbreaks have been detected in the EU as a whole, the VMVT reports.

The Authority also notes that no new outbreaks of avian influenza have been recorded in Lithuania so far, and the VMVT has not received any new reports of increased mortality of poultry or other signs of avian influenza. In recent days, there have been reports of dead swans found in the Šilutė district, whose carcasses were tested by the National Institute for Food and Veterinary Risk Assessment and were negative and did not confirm the presence of the virus.

VMVT: carelessness can have very serious consequences for the whole country

If a dead bird is spotted in the environment, it should be reported immediately to the VMVT and the carcass should not be touched or moved, the authority says.

The HMA also stresses that it is the farm's primary responsibility to ensure that only healthy birds and disinfected vehicles are allowed to enter the farm, which is why it is essential to take all precautions – to comply responsibly with biosecurity requirements, and to disinfect vehicles before entering the poultry farming area.

„In addition, countries where avian influenza has been detected are subject to restricted zones and the movement of animals and other products is not allowed from them. It should be stressed that trade should only take place with trusted trading partners, as careless behaviour can have very serious consequences for the country as a whole," notes the MoIHCP.

Huge impact of swine flu – huge

Bulgaria, one of the worst affected countries in Europe, has seen more than 2.6 million poultry, mainly laying hens, but also quail, ducks, turkeys and guinea fowl, destroyed by the disease over the past two years, Bulgarian news portal „Mediapool.bg“ reports. There have also been cases where populations of wild birds such as storks and warblers have been destroyed.

According to the Bulgarian Food Safety Agency, outbreaks of avian influenza have been recorded from January 2023 until now. The country has 32 outbreaks of avian influenza, but the worst damage has occurred on four farms.

Even after the confirmation of isolated cases of avian influenza, EU regulations and the Bulgarian Food Safety Agency's instructions require the culling of all poultry kept on farms, as the disease is highly contagious and can quickly spread to other farms.

Poultry farming is one of the few sectors where the country is not only meeting the needs of the domestic market, but is also a net exporter. In Bulgaria, the significant reduction in the number of laying hens due to avian influenza has also led to a sharp drop in the export of fresh eggs for consumption in 2024.

Bulgaria's largest poultry producer „Gradus“ announced at the end of October 2024 that it was likely to suffer losses of €12.5 million due to avian influenza.

Although no outbreaks have been recorded in Spain, experts urge vigilance

Spain, a global hotspot for migratory birds, has recorded 20 cases since July 2024 – almost all of them in wild birds, and there hasn't been a single outbreak of poultry bird flu in about two years.

„The next few weeks will be particularly important, as cases of avian influenza have been detected in wild birds in northern Europe, and most of the species migrate to Africa via Spain during the cold season,“ points out E. Pé& res Ramí& rez.

Although she is calm about the situation in her country, she urges us not to lose sight of what is happening around the world.

„With the spread of bird flu from 2020 onwards, we could be talking about a global animal pandemic with unprecedented impacts on certain species. For example, in the case of sea lions and elephant seals – in some outbreaks, the virus has killed 98% of the offspring of these groups, something pathogens have never done before. This is very worrying," she says.

„What also surprised us all was the ability of this virus to adapt to dozens of mammal species. This is something we had not foreseen and this is the fundamental danger of this virus," she adds.

EU authorities: new bird flu mutations could adapt to humans

For its part, the State Food and Veterinary Service points out that humans are at risk of contracting avian influenza through direct contact with infected birds or their secretions, but no human cases of avian influenza have been reported in Lithuania so far.

„There is also no evidence that this virus can be transmitted between humans. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimates that the risk to humans in direct contact with infected birds is moderate and the risk to the general public is – low“, – the Authority says.

However, a new report from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the European Food Safety Authority notes that avian influenza viruses are an increasing threat – they may adapt to humans and cause a future pandemic.

Experts have compiled a comprehensive list of genetic mutations, identifying 34 that could increase the risk of spreading avian influenza viruses to humans.

These mutations can improve the adaptability of viruses to mammals, facilitate their transmission from mammal to mammal and lead to accidental human infections. This raises concerns about the potential for the virus to adapt to humans and cause a global pandemic, the report said.

„By 2024, avian influenza viruses have expanded their range, infecting previously uninfected species. Our study identifies key mutations associated with possible spread to humans. A rapid response is needed to detect them. Cooperation and data sharing between all stakeholders remains essential to address the emerging challenges," said Bernhard Url, Acting Executive Director of the European Food Safety Authority.

According to Pamela Rendi-Wagner, Director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, changes in the world require us to remain vigilant and ensure that Europe is ready to respond to the threat of avian influenza.

„Robust preparedness plans are essential to protect public health in Europe,– she added.

Dozens of people contracted bird flu in 2025: but the biggest risk – animals

In the US, an outbreak among poultry and dairy cows has resulted in 67 confirmed human cases of bird flu and one death, reports „Euronews“.

The causative agent in these cases is the H5N1 avian influenza virus, which spreads between birds and some mammals. It is rare in humans. No human-to-human transmission has been reported so far. Almost all cases are linked to direct or indirect exposure to infected animals or contaminated environments.

Since the virus was first detected in 1997, 954 human cases have been reported in a total of 24 countries. No human cases have been reported in Europe, a European Commission spokesman told Euronews.

Animals are currently the most at risk from avian influenza.

657 cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus were reported in poultry and wild birds in 27 European countries between September and December 2024. The detection of the H5N1 avian influenza virus strain in farmed poultry increases the risk of infection to other animals and humans.

For example, cats have been affected in an outbreak in Poland. Dogs in Canada, Italy and Poland, farmed fur-bearing animals in Spain and Finland, and especially dairy cattle in the USA have also been affected.

The virus has been reported in the United States in a number of cases.

ELTA recalls that in Lithuania, the first outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) 2025 was confirmed on 28 January in Šilutė district on a commercial farm (UAB „Vilkyčių paukštynas“), where more than 246,000 laying hens were kept.

A swan that died on 24 January in Krokialaukis municipality, Alytus district, was also confirmed as having avian influenza virus.

The responsible Polish authorities reported that 14 outbreaks of HPAI in commercial poultry farms were recorded in Poland in January this year. More than 617,000 birds were destroyed and cases were also recorded in three small farms. The latest outbreaks were recorded in the Polish regions of Puławy, Tarnowskie Góry, Kluczbork, Lubliniec, Góra.

Control measures have been implemented in all outbreaks where HPAI has been detected: infected holdings have been isolated and infected birds and their products are being destroyed.

Lithuanian poultry keepers are urged to refrain from importing poultry from an HPAI-affected country.