Grain market developments: from frost fears to significant profits

Grain prices are retreating as warmer weather prevails in Europe, the US and the Black Sea region. This has reduced the risk of frost damage to winter wheat. Wheat and maize prices fell on the Euronext market, reports the German press. Meanwhile, rapeseed prices continue to rise, following the rise in soybean prices in Chicago.

Last week, cereal prices fell, while rising temperatures in Europe, the US and the Black Sea region clearly corrected wheat prices. News from the Ukrainian winter wheat growing regions reassured the markets, while the extreme cold wave that affected both Ukraine and Russia is rapidly retreating from the main winter wheat growing areas.

In eastern Ukraine, thermometers have dropped below -20°C and snow cover is low, unlike in Russia. In the USA, warmer temperatures are also forecast for February, and snowmelt since late January is significantly improving soil moisture. As a result, market fears of frost-induced crop losses in the US and Ukraine have been substantially reduced.

However, yield assessments in US winter wheat regions are deteriorating, with concerns that drought could become a problem. In Russia, 97% of winter crops were in normal condition at the beginning of February, compared to 87% last year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev reported. Export prices for Russian wheat reached their highest level since November 2025, while Egypt purchased both Ukrainian and French wheat shipments.

Warmer weather in the northern hemisphere and a lack of new news have led to profit-taking in the wheat market. Wheat prices returned to previous levels, with profit-taking and technical selling on Euronext putting further downward pressure on them. Maize prices are being affected by improved weather conditions in South America, with the Argentine harvest reaching a record 57 million tonnes.

Rape prices are under pressure from rising soybean prices and low imports into Europe. The March 2026 contract is approaching 480 €/t, while the May contract has risen to 485.75 €/t – the highest price since July 2025.

Traders are also engaged in technical selling ahead of the release of the USDA's (US Department of Agriculture) Global Supply and Demand Report.

The USDA is expected to release its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop next Tuesday, which could be 1–2 million tonnes higher than the current level of 178 million tonnes due to heavy rains.