GDT index rises for the fourth time: the dairy market climbs up

The 17 February trading session on the dairy trading floor of the „Global Dairy Trade“ (GDT) confirmed the trend of recovery in the global dairy market that has been developing since the beginning of the year. The overall GDT price index increased by 3.6% in the last session to 1,202 points.

The index results show a consistent price increase for the fourth consecutive session. This sends a clear signal to market participants that global trade is gradually stabilising and moving into a growth phase after the 2025 volatility. Since the beginning of the year, the GDT index has risen by almost a fifth, suggesting that prices are already in a recovery phase.

The most important feature of this session – the very pronounced appreciation of milk fat products. The price of butter jumped by more than 10%, while the anhydrous dairy fat segment also showed strong growth. These dynamics show that it is the fat products that are currently the main driver of the overall market. This is mainly due to recovering demand from the food industry, consumption and limited supply in some regions. Traditionally, prices of fat products are sensitive to changes in demand, so sharper spikes are often seen as an early indicator of market sentiment.

The dairy flour segment showed more moderate but stable growth. Whole milk flour appreciated by around 2.5% and skimmed milk flour by around 3%. These dynamics suggest that underlying global demand, particularly in Asian markets, remains quite active, but that buyers are not yet in a hurry to aggressively raise prices. This may be linked to the cautious policy of importers to replenish stocks gradually, avoiding larger price fluctuations.

This time, however, Cheddar cheese prices fell by 1%, although Mozzarella cheese showed an increase (+5.0%). The cheese segment is often more dependent on regional consumption trends and competition between different exporters, and can therefore have different dynamics from flour or fat products.

In the overall picture, the four consecutive positive GDT auctions show that the market is developing a clear upward trend. Such a trend tends to signal a balanced supply/demand balance and a willingness of buyers to pay a higher price for the product.

However, in the longer term, it is worth keeping a more cautious outlook. For example, milk production in Europe and parts of other regions may increase, which could put additional pressure on prices in the second half of the year. In other words, the current price increases reflect a short-term recovery in demand and cyclicality of supply rather than a longer-term trend.

The GDT trading platform is owned by the New Zealand cooperative „Fonterra“ and the trends recorded here do not reach Europe until around 1.5-2 months later.