Double-digit drop in diesel sales in the Polish border region

Municipalities along the border with Poland have seen a significant drop in diesel sales this year due to higher excise duties on fuel. More and more drivers, from hauliers to local residents, are choosing to fill up in Poland, where they also buy other goods. The fuel sector warns that if excise duties continue to rise next year, "fuel tourism" in the border municipalities will intensify even further.

According to the data of the State Tax Inspectorate, in January-October this year, the number of excise duties increased from 1.5% to 1.5%. In Lithuania, 1.58 billion litres of diesel were sold in January-January; 13.2% less than in the same period. By comparison, at the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Finance forecast only a 6% drop in the diesel market.

Diesel sales declined in many Lithuanian municipalities during the period, but the biggest drops occurred in those close to the Polish border and with the highest flows of freight traffic. 

Record fall in Kalvarija

The municipality of Kalvarija has seen the biggest drop in diesel sales, with diesel sales in January-October this year being 73.4% lower than in the same period last year. The municipality of Šakiai district recorded a particularly large drop of 51.4%, while diesel sales in Marijampolė district dropped by 27.8% and in Prienai district by 27.8%. – 16%, in Alytus – 13.6%.

„We can see a very clear trend – in municipalities closer to Poland, the drop in diesel sales is particularly pronounced. International transport trucks are almost no longer visiting local service stations, and the population is increasingly travelling to Poland to buy not only fuel but also food and other essentials. As a result, our regional economy suffers, while businesses in neighbouring Poland benefit," said Kristina Čeredničenkaitė, President of the Lithuanian Innovative Energy and Trade Association (LIEPA).

LIEPA forecasts that petrol stations in the border region with Poland, which is experiencing the greatest difficulties, will have to lay off around 100 employees this year. The wage bill for the redundancies is estimated at €3 million.

The significant drop in fuel sales is being felt most acutely by smaller forecourt chains, which are struggling to absorb the loss of revenue. In this critical situation, most border service stations are trying to optimise their operations. Laying off employees is a last resort, so other, less painful ways are being sought to reduce the losses, such as shortening working hours and doing away with night shifts," said K. Čeredničenkaitė.

Price difference – not only with Poles but also Latvians

In 2026, the government has proposed a 6.5% increase in excise duty on diesel from €519.6 to €553.6 per 1,000 litres, which would make one litre of diesel at the pump 4 cents more expensive.

Poland will not raise diesel excise duty again next year, which means that the difference in the price of diesel at the pumps of neighbouring countries will increase to 14 ct/l. The widening price gap will entice even more border residents to shop in Poland.

In order to address this problem, the Lithuanian business community has proposed to set a diesel excise duty rate close to that of Poland, thus eliminating the diesel price difference between the countries. This solution would encourage hauliers and residents to refuel in Lithuania and avoid further price increases next year.

In addition, the LIEPA President pointed out that in 2026 the pressure will not only come from Poland but also from Latvia. In this country, diesel excise duty will rise by 6%, but due to the nuances of other legislation coming into force, diesel in Latvia will be about 6 ct/l cheaper than in Lithuania by April.

„Such a price disparity would undoubtedly lead to a greater flow of Lithuanian drivers to Latvian petrol stations, which would mean additional economic losses for Lithuania – lower petrol station turnover, less tax collection and another competitive pressure on businesses in border regions“, – noted K. Čeredničenkaitė.