In January 2023, olive oil prices in the EU reached a record high compared to the previous year, jumping by as much as 50%, which led to a shift in consumer preferences.

In the 2023/2024 season, high heat, drought and rising energy costs challenged the market. Olive oil prices in all producing countries have almost doubled in the last two years. According to the International Olive Council, although prices have been falling since January, they are still around 20% higher than last year.

Spain's spring rains have helped olive trees considerably and production costs are gradually returning to their original situation. Spain produces 45% of the world's olive oil and 70% of the EU's olive oil. The country's harvest therefore influences prices in the EU bloc. There are also optimistic harvest forecasts for Greece, which is the third largest oil producing country.

Although the olive harvest starts on 1 October, it will not be available on the national market until the end of November and on the international market until the end of December or January. It is forecast that olive prices could fall from close to €9 per kilo in recent months to €5–6 per kilo.

Sunflower oil

In Spain, where olive oil plays an important economic and cultural role, families have started to swap their beloved „liquid gold“ for the cheaper – sunflower oil, which became the best-selling oil for the first time in decades at the beginning of 2024.

With olive oil prices rising, consumers are forced to look for substitutes. Cheaper sunflower oil is making inroads into Mediterranean cuisine, where olive oil traditionally dominates, noted expert Dimitra Aliefs.

Spain's olive oil exports, meanwhile, fell by around 40% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2022. It should be noted that Asian markets are seeing a demand for olive oil, driven by the high price of olive oil. Meanwhile, countries with higher per capita incomes, such as the United States, remain committed to olive oil.