Between growth forecasts and investment fears: where the market for agricultural machinery is heading

As recent trends show, the global market for agricultural machinery is currently moving in two different directions. In Europe and North America, demand for machinery is slowing down as farms temporarily postpone investment decisions, while the growth momentum is increasingly shifting to the faster developing regions of Asia, Africa and parts of South America.

The geopolitical factors (trade restrictions, riskier supply chains), the financial environment (higher interest rates, farm caution on investments) and the technological transformation, including digitalisation and precision farming solutions, are the main influences on these trends.

The Italian Federation of the Agricultural Machinery Industry (FederUnacoma) highlights the emergence of a "new geography of markets". International trade in agricultural machinery is forecast to grow at an annual rate of around 1.9% over the period 2026 to 2029, reaching around €92.5 billion at the end of the period. The strongest growth is expected in sub-Saharan Africa (+4.8%), Asia (+3.8%) and Latin America (+2.9%).

In Europe, the downturn is particularly evident in the machinery registrations statistics. According to the European Agricultural Machinery Association (CEMA), in 2024, around 204,500 tractors were registered across Europe, of which CEMA estimates that around 144,400 were agricultural tractors and the remainder were multi-purpose tractors, including utility and other tractors.

2025 figures have not yet been published by CEMA, but previous forecasts have predicted that registrations could increase to around 146,000 units, which would indicate signs of stabilisation in the market.

Some European countries have indeed recorded a partial recovery in 2025, especially where farm investments have benefited from increased public support. According to FederUnacoma, in Italy, 17,573 new tractors will be registered in 2025, 13.7% more than in 2024, when the historic bottom was reached (15,450 units). This example clearly illustrates the general logic of the market: after a few weak years, financial incentives, more favourable credit conditions or a stabilisation of farm incomes are enough to bring previously postponed investments back on the market.

North America has also seen a marked slowdown in sales in the second half of 2025, as confirmed by the monthly reports of the US Association of Industrial Manufacturing (AEM). According to AEM, in November 2025, total US sales of agricultural tractors were 19.6% lower than in the same period a year earlier, while combine harvester sales were down even more - by as much as 35.2%.

At the same time, the market remains „wavy“. In September 2025, US tractor sales were briefly up by 4.1%, but in the following months they fell again. In Canada, the situation remained mixed – in November, combine harvester sales grew by 25.6%, while tractor sales declined by 6.9%.

Different analytical sources also provide different market size figures, but the overall trend remains similar – long-term growth is forecast, although cyclical fluctuations are evident in the short term. Market research company „Mordor Intelligence“ estimates the agricultural machinery market to be worth around €151.55 billion in 2025. The market for agricultural machinery is estimated to reach around USD 197.13 billion in 2025 and could grow to around USD 197.13 billion by 2030. By 2030, the average annual growth rate will be around 5.4%. At the same time, „Technavio“ forecasts that the market is expected to grow by around USD 50 billion in the period 2024–2029. In contrast, the growth of €92.5 billion indicated by FederUnacoma is only related to the forecast for international trade and not to the total global turnover of the market.

Thus, the published growth figures are only a partial reflection of how specific economies actually feel. In Europe, the waves of farmers' protests, now in their third year, are a clear signal of the major structural challenges facing the agricultural sector.

Increasing environmental and administrative requirements and declining farm gate prices are making farmers particularly wary of investment risks.

On the other hand, some farms are looking for opportunities to improve efficiency, especially where manufacturers offer more technologically efficient machinery with advanced precision farming and automation solutions. Such solutions have so far been more prominent in Europe and North America, while the rest of the world relies primarily on less technologically sophisticated, but massively available machinery, which is driving overall market growth.

But the bottom line remains the same – today, the market for agricultural machinery is balanced between long-term growth forecasts and short-term farm caution, and its future will be determined by how successfully manufacturers and policy makers are able to match technological advances with the real economic opportunities for farmers.