The average price of dairy products is even lower than it was in the spring
The global dairy market is showing signs of recovery: the results of the GDT auction on 21 July brought an end to the downward trend
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction held on 21 July 2026 (Event 408) provided the first clear positive signal following several weaker sessions. The GDT price index rose, whilst trading volumes increased significantly. Although the average price of dairy products remained lower than in the spring, the results suggest that the global dairy market may have reached a short-term low.
The GDT index rose by +1.5 %
Following several sessions characterised by falling prices or very slight fluctuations, the GDT price index rose by +1.5% on 21 July. Trends in recent auctions: +0.6% (19 May), –0.6% (2 June), –2.8% (16 June), –5.1% (7 July), +1.5% (21 July). This is the first positive result following two consecutive sharp falls and indicates that buyer activity is picking up again in the market.
The average price is still lower than in the spring
The average winning price stood at: 3,815 USD/t. This is lower than on 16 June (3,979 USD/t), so it is clear that price levels have not yet returned to the highs seen in spring. However, the most important factor is not the average price itself, but the trend – following the previous fall, the price index has started to rise again. This indicates that buyers are prepared to pay more for some products, although the overall price level remains relatively low.
Trading volumes have more than doubled
The most notable feature of this session was the volume of products sold. A total of 26,889 tonnes were sold at the auction. By way of comparison: 16 June – 12,922 tonnes; 21 July – 26,889 tonnes. This represents more than double the trading volume. This growth can be seen as a sign that there is now more supply on the market, whilst buyer activity has also increased. Most importantly, despite the rise in trading volume, the price index did not fall but rose. This indicates that the additional supply was successfully absorbed by the market.
Buyer activity has increased significantly
On 21 July, 167 buyers took part in the auction; 117 won contracts, with trading taking place over 17 rounds. The number of successful buyers was one of the highest in recent months. This indicates broader interest among participants and more active competition for the products on offer.
What does the 2026 GDT trend indicate?
During the first half of the year, the global dairy market went through several phases: January–March – rapid price growth. April – a correction following the rise. May – stabilisation. June and early July – weakening demand and falling prices. 21 July – the first signs of recovery.
This shows that the market remains sensitive to changes in demand, but following a weaker period, there is renewed optimism.
What does this mean for the global dairy market?
The results from 21 July allow us to draw several important conclusions. Firstly, trading activity in the market has increased. Higher sales volumes and a greater number of successful bidders indicate that market participants are returning to the market more actively. Secondly, the price index has risen despite a significantly higher supply. This means that demand was strong enough to absorb the increased volume of products. Thirdly, although the average price remains lower than in the spring, the positive change in the index may indicate that the market is beginning to stabilise at a new level.
What does this mean for the European Union?
For the European dairy sector, these results are cautiously positive. If global demand continues to strengthen, prices for butter and milk powder may stabilise, pressure on prices in export markets will ease, and processors will be able to plan their sales more confidently. It is still too early to speak of a new cycle of price rises, but the downward trend seen in June and early July has, at least for the time being, come to a halt.
What does this mean for Lithuania?
For the Lithuanian dairy sector, this session brings more optimism than previous ones. A positive change in the GDT index may contribute to more stable milk purchase prices, less pressure to reduce them, and better export prospects for processors. As the Lithuanian dairy sector is closely linked to international trade, increasing global activity is a favourable sign for the entire dairy supply chain.
Conclusion
The GDT auction on 21 July 2026 broke the negative trend seen in previous sessions. The price index rose by 1.5 per cent, trading volumes more than doubled, and buyer activity was among the highest this year.
Although the average price of dairy products remains lower than in the spring, this session suggests that the global dairy market is beginning to recover following the slowdown at the start of the summer. If the forthcoming auctions confirm this trend, we can expect a more stable situation both on the global market and in the European and Lithuanian dairy sectors.
