The global dairy market is stabilising: GDT prices have remained virtually unchanged

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction (Event 409) held on 4 August 2026 showed that dairy product prices remained virtually unchanged. The GDT price index rose by just 0.1 per cent, but another indicator stands out this time – a sharp increase in the volume of products sold. This suggests that global market demand remains fairly robust, although there is as yet no momentum for price growth.

GDT index – just +0.1 %

On 4 August, the GDT price index rose by just 0.1 per cent compared with the session on 21 July, when a rise of 1.5 per cent was recorded. The trend over recent sessions suggests that, following a sharp fall in June and early July, the situation is stabilising. On 16 June, the index fell by 2.8 per cent, on 7 July by a further 5.1 per cent, but returned to positive territory on 21 July and remained virtually unchanged on 4 August. Therefore, the +0.1 per cent in this case should be viewed not as growth, but as price stabilisation following the previous decline.

Average price – 3,778 USD/t

The average winning price for dairy products on 4 August stood at 3,778 USD per tonne. On 21 July, it stood at 3,815 USD/t. Thus, although the overall GDT index rose by 0.1 per cent, the average winning price fell. This is not a contradiction – the GDT index is a weighted indicator influenced by changes in the prices of individual products, their weightings and the timing of sales; consequently, it does not necessarily move in tandem with the simple average auction price. Most importantly, prices are currently holding at around 3,800 USD/t, although this is already significantly lower than in the spring, when the average price had risen above 4,300 USD/t.

The biggest news – as many as 40,504 tonnes were sold

This figure is one of the most interesting outcomes of the session on 4 August. A total of 40,504 tonnes of dairy products were sold at the auction, compared with 26,889 tonnes sold on 21 July. This means that the volume sold increased by more than 50 per cent in just a single session. More importantly, this increase in supply did not cause the overall GDT index to fall.

This is a fairly positive sign. The market managed to absorb a significantly larger volume of products whilst keeping the price index virtually unchanged. This suggests that buyer demand remains sufficient to absorb the increased supply. However, the growing supply may also limit the potential for prices to rise more rapidly in the near future.

Buyer activity has increased

170 buyers took part in the auction on 4 August, and as many as 132 of them won lots. This is more than on 21 July, when there were 167 participants and 117 winners. The auction took place over 16 rounds and lasted 2 hours and 36 minutes. The high number of successful bidders, combined with a sales volume of 40,500 tonnes, indicates fairly broad participation from international buyers. This is a key reason why the current situation should not be viewed as a weak market.

What does this mean for the global dairy market?

The results from 4 August send a fairly clear signal – the global dairy market is stabilising following the fall in prices at the start of summer, but has not yet returned to a growth phase. On the one hand, the positive result of +0.1 per cent following the +1.5 per cent recorded on 21 July indicates that the decline has, at least for now, come to a halt. On the other hand, the massive increase in the volume of products on sale means that the supply side is becoming more significant. If large volumes are brought to market in the coming months, a corresponding rise in global demand will be needed for prices to rise. Therefore, the most important question now is not whether there are buyers in the market – the session on 4 August showed that there are. The key question is whether demand will remain strong enough as supply increases.

What does this mean for the EU?

For the European Union, these results are neutral to positive. As the GDT index stabilises, pressure on global dairy prices is easing. This may help to support prices for European butter, milk powder and other exported products. However, rising global supply also means stronger competition. If New Zealand and other major exporters increase the volumes they supply to the international market, it may be more difficult for European exporters to raise prices. Consequently, for the EU market, the current situation suggests stability rather than a new phase of price rises.

What does this mean for Lithuania?

For the Lithuanian dairy sector, the results of 4 August are also fairly neutral. The positive aspect is that global prices have stopped falling rapidly. This reduces the risk of additional external pressure on Lithuanian dairy processors and on raw milk purchase prices. However, the current GDT results do not yet provide grounds for expecting a marked rise in milk purchase prices. For that to happen, we would need to see not only a stable index, but also several consecutive sessions of growth and a rise in the prices of key products – particularly butter, SMP and WMP.

Conclusion

The GDT auction on 4 August 2026 is primarily a sign of stability rather than growth. The GDT index rose by just 0.1 per cent, with the average price reaching USD 3,778/t, but sales volume surged to as much as 40,504 tonnes. Despite such a significant increase in supply, the price index did not fall. This suggests that global demand is currently strong enough to absorb the increased supply, but it is precisely this growth in supply that may become the main factor limiting price rises in the coming months. Following the downturn in June and early July, the market appears to have found a temporary bottom, but it is still too early to speak of a new sustainable cycle of price growth.

Global Dairy Trade results – simple and clear

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) is an international online auction platform where large quantities of dairy products are sold every two weeks. The results of these auctions are considered one of the most important indicators of global dairy market prices.

Global Dairy Trade (GDT) is an online trading platform established in 2008 by the New Zealand dairy producer Fonterra, with the aim of ensuring a transparent and efficient global dairy trading system. Both buyers and sellers from all over the world take part in GDT auctions.

How does this apply to a typical dairy farm?

• The index is rising – global dairy prices are increasing; this is often a positive sign for raw milk prices.
• The index is falling – there is downward pressure on prices in the market; milk collection prices may stabilise or fall.
• Butter or milk powder is becoming more expensive – this indicates strong demand for exports.
• Large volumes sold – the market is active, and buyers are confident about the future.

Why is it worth following the GDT results?

✔ For dairy farmers – to understand global price trends
✔ For co-operatives and processors – to plan sales and contracts
✔ For agricultural specialists – to analyse market trends
✔ For farm managers – to make more informed financial decisions

The GDT Events Results page is a quick way to get a feel for the global dairy market. Even if you are not involved in exports, this data indirectly influences Lithuanian milk purchase prices.