"Moody's affirms Lithuania's previous credit rating

On Friday evening, the international credit rating agency (IRA) „Moody's Investment Service reiterated its previously assigned „A2“ long-term debt rating for Lithuania, and maintained a stable outlook.

The affirmation of Lithuania's "A2" credit rating reflects the country's track record of pursuing active economic policies and fiscal discipline. According to „Moody’s“ experts, Lithuania is sufficiently resilient to shocks, as demonstrated once again in recent years, including a significant reduction in economic ties with Russia. In 2025, public debt was below 40% of GDP and debt sustainability is very good.

According to analysts at „Moody’s“, the strong economic situation underpins the „A2“ rating, reflecting the country's strong long-term growth and high level of income per head. This is driven by structural change – a shift towards a more productive service sector, especially in information technology and business services, as well as a gradual shift towards higher-tech manufacturing. The Agency forecasts real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026, significantly faster than the projected long-term growth rate of 2.5%.

However, according to Moody's, these economic advantages are partly offset by the country's small market size and its extreme openness, which leave Lithuania vulnerable to fluctuations in external demand. In addition, unfavourable demographic trends are likely to reduce labour supply and slow down potential growth in the medium and long term, despite mitigating factors such as productivity gains, rising labour market participation rates and positive net migration.

The stable outlook suggests that the risks to the A2 rating are currently balanced. Analysts at „Moody’s“ believe that geopolitical risks to Lithuania will remain elevated, but are mitigated by the country's NATO membership, the deployment of a multinational NATO battlegroup in Lithuania and the government's focus on strengthening its defence capabilities. The stable outlook also reflects the Agency's expectation that economic growth will remain robust and the fiscal position resilient.

„Moody's“s“s last upgraded Lithuania's credit ratings in February 2021, when its long-term borrowing rating of A3 (positive outlook), which was assigned in 2015, was raised to A2 (stable outlook). For the latest credit rating announcement, see here. 

A week ago, the international credit rating agency „Morningstar DBRS“ reaffirmed Lithuania's previously assigned „A (high)“ long-term debt rating with a stable outlook. „Morningstar DBRS“ last changed Lithuania's long-term debt rating in November 2021 – upgraded it from „A“ to „A (high)“ with a stable outlook.

In November last year, the Bank was upgraded to "A". Lithuania's rating of – „A“ with stable outlook – was also affirmed by  S&P Global Ratings“ credit rating agency. The analysts of this agency assessed Lithuania's situation as stable, and a decision was taken not to change the country's 2024 credit rating to „A“ (stable outlook), to maintain the A-1 short-term lending rating, and to only publish a report on Lithuania assessing the country's economic outlook.

„Fitch Ratings“ credit rating agency affirmed Lithuania's „A“ credit rating with a stable outlook at the end of last October. Lithuania's credit ratings were last upgraded by the agency in January 2020, when the long-term debt rating was raised from „A-“ to „A“.