"Rabobank warns: agricultural trade will be driven more by geopolitics than by market laws

Geopolitics rather than market forces will increasingly shape agricultural trade around the world, according to analysts at Rabobank, one of the world's oldest agricultural co-operative banks. Geopolitical events will continue to influence agricultural trade in 2026, they say. The supply-demand formula, which is classic for trade, will collide with the pursuit of the strategic national interests of different countries.

For their part, analysts at „Rabobank“ are complemented by analysts at „Agri Commodity Outlook“, who argue that the US and China will remain the main forces forming new trading blocs when it comes to grains, soy, meat and agricultural commodities.

These dynamics are changing traditional market patterns: farmers and exporters will have to focus more on the dependence of trading partners on one geopolitical bloc or another, rather than just on prices and logistics.

This creates uncertainty in traditional export markets — it can lead to diversification of trade arrangements between countries and concerns about food security and resilience of supply chains. This is the way to resist geopolitical shocks, analysts say.